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Post by v9733xa on Oct 1, 2019 17:24:40 GMT -5
As much as people want Trump impeached (for the 40th different time), it simply is not happening and he is currently the favorite (according to gambling sportsbooks) to become president again in 2020. Not trying to stir anything, just my honest truthful thoughts. First, be careful with the word "impeachment." A clinical definition of the term reveals that -- and I could take a bet on this -- he absolutely will be impeached. Remember, impeachment is solely the bringing and indicting of charges by the House of Representatives against a president. The Democrats have the majority, and even though in the past year there was never more than 100 or so who were on the record supporting impeachment, the latest roll is easily enough since the current developments with Ukraine. The New York Times has it at 225, in fact. So, impeachment as a legislative procedure is a virtual certainty. I would bet on it without question. That part is going to happen. What charge or charges exactly? Not sure. It could get muddled. AFTER THAT is probably to what you're referring, the trial and potential removal from office by the Senate. Recall that the Senate is 53 Republicans, and a trial is presided over by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Depending on the charges brought forth, it's a two-thirds majority needed to removal from office. Yes, that is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY to happen, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Several Republicans including Senator Mitt Romney have surely stopped short of supporting impeachment at all -- to be fair, "impeachment" is not their job as senators so they have no obligation to answer that -- but have clearly uttered statements in support of "the process" or impeachment proceedings moving forward. Anyway, "the favorite" in 2020 doesn't mean much right now. It's 13 months before the election. Everything changes in a year. Remember 1991/1992? GW Bush was a surefire favorite and no one wanted to face him. A year later, a split election brought Clinton the victory. Remember 2011/2012? Obama actually had polling numbers similar to Trump at this moment in time but trounced Romney the next year. The only reason the betting odds are in Trump's favorite are 1) the historical value of incumbency, and 2) that the other side is naturally fractured with literally 15 people running. What were the "odds" for Hilary Clinton at this point in 2015? Don't make me look...
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Post by tao on Oct 1, 2019 20:44:36 GMT -5
"Several Republicans including Senator Mitt Romney have surely stopped short of supporting impeachment at all..." Even Mitch McConnell has expressed a willingness to look into and assess matters should they get that far.
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Post by stringypoo on Oct 2, 2019 1:11:11 GMT -5
I think he has a high chance of surviving impeachment, and eventually winning a second term. It doesn’t really sound all that likely from today’s standpoint, but neither did initially winning office.
This 2020 upcoming election which is still far away is the first one in my life that I felt uninterested in, but not because I don’t care. It’s just that I’m in China, out of daily discussions about Trump and other political figures, and I’ve come to enjoy not having to hear everyone complain about everything all the time. I was among them for a few years, complaining about how Trump seemed invincible despite all the various damages he causes. Like, why do his supporters seem so blind? But now, I’m much happier because I don’t hear all the controversy all the time. Still I care deeply about this topic though, and would really appreciate a turning of the table.
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Post by aquafina on Oct 2, 2019 10:58:42 GMT -5
and I’ve come to enjoy not having to hear everyone complain about everything all the time. I envy this statement.
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Post by v9733xa on Nov 13, 2019 19:31:31 GMT -5
Alright, well, for all three of you who will read this, it seems as good of a time as any to mention that things have ramped up a bit in very unexpected ways in the last month or two. That is, official impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives started today. Here's where we are: A vote was held the other week to officially codify these hearings, which is still really in the witness-asking and fact-finding phase, and most Democrats voted in favor of the process. Every Republican voted no. Vox has an excellent explainer -- www.vox.com/2019/11/5/20914280/impeachment-trump-explained -- but here are the details, in summation. The president is accused, or will likely be accused formally, or bribery and other high crimes and misdemeanors in relation to a phone call (or perhaps more, as new revelations come out every day) with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the end of July. The whistleblower complaint, from an anonymous intelligence official who was briefed on the call, alleges a cover-up of the call and its information. When a rough summary (not an official transcript) was released by the White House, it revealed that President Trump asked Ukraine for "a favor, though" in relation to investigating baseless theories about former Vice-President Joe Biden's son Hunter, who worked on the board of a Ukrainian energy company 5 years ago. Trump was, without Ukraine knowing it yet, withholding vital military funding to the embattled European country in its ongoing war with Russia to its east. Essentially the President was asking for dirt on a potential political opponent -- Biden leading in many early Democratic polls for the 2020 Election Primaries -- and preventing military aid from reaching a nation until they did so. Many have speculated that asking for "anything of value strictly violates the emolument clause of the Constitution, as well as federal statues which are problematic for anyone who "corruptly demands, seeks, receives, accepts, or agrees to receive or accept anything of value personally … in return for … being influenced in the performance of any official act.” As the weeks have progressed, other officials -- anonymous and not -- have verified the phone call and its contents. Republicans have strained credulity in changing their tactics week by week. At first it was "this didn't happen." Then "well it didn't happen EXACTLY that way." Then "well what about this Hunter Biden guy huh, seems fishy, the President was just following up." Then "well it doesn't matter because Ukraine got the money later." Then "there's no quid pro quo." Then "okay there's a quid pro quo but it's not illegal." Then "so what the Senate will never remove him from office anyway." Today the official hearings began. There's a long way to go, but it's likely they will last a couple weeks and the House will vote on impeachment articles by December. It is a virtual certainty that impeachment will occur. It's up to the Senate trial, perhaps taking place around Christmas or in January.
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Post by stringypoo on Nov 13, 2019 21:43:27 GMT -5
Thanks for that summary, v9733xa. When I came to work three hours ago, there were a few Westerners discussing this content, so I now have more full awareness of the situation. I guess I don't have anything to add or say, really. I still have this lingering expectation that Trump will complete his presidency, as he has been fairly untouched by everything negative he's done thus far. There are many who prefer to turn a blind eye to his many bad moves. Perhaps seemingly unrelated, but I read somewhere in a random facts about each US state article online that in the state of New Mexico, you have an additional step to complete before you are able to vote. Something of an idiot test, for lack of better words, to prove you're not incapable of choosing a candidate based on judgment. I'm not sure how complex or accurate what I read was, but in some way, I feel it is the right direction. Think about how many people just vote red or blue because everyone else in their family or community does. Those people who never read or watch the news and learn the facts of the candidates they vote on. It hits home for me to think this way because all of my aunts and uncles and their children bleed red party, but many of them have their facts very backwards, and accused Obama of things he never did regularly and hold those views as truths, despite never actually watching or reading the news. Just word of mouth rumors... although we can say that our election was tampered with in some way, we must also acknowledge that the results are also due to blind voters. I also realize some voted for Trump because they actually knew who he was and what he stands for. But a lot of people actually didn't know that well either.
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Post by v9733xa on Nov 14, 2019 18:13:05 GMT -5
Perhaps seemingly unrelated, but I read somewhere in a random facts about each US state article online that in the state of New Mexico, you have an additional step to complete before you are able to vote. Something of an idiot test, for lack of better words, to prove you're not incapable of choosing a candidate based on judgment. I'm not sure how complex or accurate what I read was, but in some way, I feel it is the right direction. Think about how many people just vote red or blue because everyone else in their family or community does. Those people who never read or watch the news and learn the facts of the candidates they vote on. It hits home for me to think this way because all of my aunts and uncles and their children bleed red party, but many of them have their facts very backwards, and accused Obama of things he never did regularly and hold those views as truths, despite never actually watching or reading the news. Just word of mouth rumors... although we can say that our election was tampered with in some way, we must also acknowledge that the results are also due to blind voters. I also realize some voted for Trump because they actually knew who he was and what he stands for. But a lot of people actually didn't know that well either. No no no no NO we must NOT ever go down that road. That's not dissimilar to the comprehension tests that Southern whites used to make black voters take in the 1910s and 20s, for those with enough guts to try them, where they had them quizzed on memorizing the Constitution or some nonsense to prove they couldn't vote. We cannot start determining who is intelligent enough, knowledgeable enough, or cognizant enough to vote. That's a slippery slope I'll be damned if we ever go down. We must, instead, do the opposite, and continue to expand voting to every eligible citizen. You should be automatically registered, in fact, with no process required. Most other countries do this. And then with more outreach and education -- and proper funding and oversight of Social Studies curricula in schools -- voters can in time feel more empowered and in-touch. No it'll never be perfect, and of course you're going to have plenty of numbskulls vote. But how is the vote of someone who checks "R" on every line because his mamma told him so, any different from my dad who checks "R" on every line because he believes it's right? There is no difference. A vote is a vote. I start from the opposite assumption as you: instead of assuming that we need to weed out the simpletons, I assume that all people can feel an innate pride in voting for what they believe regardless of their standing otherwise.
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Post by v9733xa on Nov 20, 2019 18:57:39 GMT -5
An actual press photograph. Really. It's really real.
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Post by 🜏 Malphas 🜏 on Dec 18, 2019 21:38:23 GMT -5
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Post by aquafina on Dec 19, 2019 14:38:57 GMT -5
I have a question for everyone in here, feel free to answer if you would like:
Why do you think Trump is a bad president?
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Post by v9733xa on Dec 19, 2019 22:16:07 GMT -5
Just a quick update for the non-newsy:
President Trump was officially impeached last evening by the House on two charges: abuse of power, and obstruction of Congress.
The first charge was certainly expected from the get-go -- it directly addressed the action I talked about a while ago in the Ukraine debacle -- and the second essentially took shape while the investigation happened, as the White House stonewalled all attempts at subpoenas and refused to cooperate in any legal way, also blocking access to evidence and witnesses.
Again, "impeachment" solely means just that: the official charging of the president by a majority of the House (each vote was nearly identical, a margin of about 30 votes completely on party lines). The Senate will now take the charges, organize their trial rules, and hold the final legal process -- presided over by the Chief Justice -- where the Senators are the 100-member jury. A two-thirds majority is required to convict.
No, that won't happen. The Republicans control the Senate and even if a handful of them broke ranks (as some theorize), it will get nowhere near 67.
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Post by chocollama on Dec 20, 2019 0:19:54 GMT -5
I'm glad they're pinning him for obstruction. I felt like I was going crazy when I'd read he told individuals not to obey the subpoenas. How would any other person get away with that? Good to see he won't either, even if it's only a stain on his record.
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Post by stringypoo on Dec 20, 2019 0:43:49 GMT -5
I have a question for everyone in here, feel free to answer if you would like: Why do you think Trump is a bad president? In all honesty, this is a touchy subject that I normally wouldn’t touch with a ten foot pole. However, I’ll bravely answer your question due to the fact I’m not afraid to admit I’ve been quite ignorant of what really occurred since he got into office. My extreme work schedule during the first two years of his presidency stole from my continued interest in his presidency, so I know little about his actual policies and actions. However, let me speak of the area I was most following: the campaign trail: I followed this very carefully. I have never seen such a crude route and way of reaching office before. A presidential candidate who literally spoke his mind in a way that showed his arrogance, occasional ignorance, and absurd rhetoric which inspired plenty of lesser-minded folks to incite injustices in the communities which were quite divided. The campaign was ugly in my opinion. I don’t think it’s okay for a candidate to crack arrogant jokes about being able to shoot someone and still win support of the people, or make fun of an individual with Down’s syndrome at a rally. The pussy grabbing tape was old, although it showed him as disgusting, it is more dismissible in my view given the time and place...but it still wasn’t the language you’d expect of a future president. There are a lot of boxes he checks for indecency. However, much of that doesn’t mean he’s a bad president either. I personally don’t think a president needs to be Christian to be a good president, but it seems that many people still think in this way. One way I feel he showed to be a bad President was the way he criticized the healthcare plans of Obama and tried to dismantle them (I didn’t follow this super closely but I didn’t support the rhetoric behind it, nor do I think trying to weaken it was a correct choice). I guess there are a few other policies he signed off on that I didn’t agree on either, but right now I’m blanking on it. I also could say he signed one or two that I surprisingly thought were good things, but I already forgot what they were. Bad signs of his presidency for real though? Obstruction of justice. But you know what? I’ve distanced myself from this situation so much, especially now in China for my second year, and now I hardly think about it. I have other US coworkers who talk about this stuff all the time, and they stay up late at night to see the hearings and everything. My group chat is exploding with excitement from those other teachers over the most recent updates. I’m personally a bit removed emotionally, however. I guess I am in future Chinese immigration mode.
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Post by v9733xa on Dec 20, 2019 18:01:38 GMT -5
I have a question for everyone in here, feel free to answer if you would like: Why do you think Trump is a bad president? He is uniquely unqualified for office. People can be elected to important positions without having been politicians before, or with brief experience. Dwight Eisenhower never held elected office before his eight-year presidency. Many senators and representatives never ran for anything before. Both Barack Obama and Abraham Lincoln only had brief terms in Congress before winning two presidential elections. But Donald Trump is so horrendously unfit. He has never earned anything in his life. That very fact, the hand-out from his father and the billions of dollars he lost and then gained right back from not having to pay taxes for 15 years (on top of the scam his entire family is built upon), means that he is used to getting his way in every respect. And because he's a master of deception and deflection, he's had people kowtow to him his entire life. You can be a dictator with this mentality, but not the leader of the free world. His complete lack of empathy and understanding for any thought or perspective that isn't his own is like the average FoxNews viewer on crack. He spun this as "beholden to no one," when in fact it meant "with reckless abandon and wanton disregard for basic fundamental decency." So in turn he is just profoundly ignorant of, like, nearly everything about how the world works and the lives of virtually any normal person. This is a man who "donated" to charity from his fraudulent foundation, meaning he didn't have to spend his own money. He says we can ban an entire religion from coming into the country. He speaks of good people "on both sides" of a rally where one side is neo-Nazi KKK sympathizers. He says he knows more than his generals. He thinks most Mexicans -- "some, I assume, are good people" -- are murderers and rapists. He refused to pay contractors and made this an essential business practice. He hired illegal Polish immigrants and had them tossed out of the country. But truly, he is literally dangerous to the country. If he's willing to leverage military aid to investigate a political rival... what's next? Withholding diplomatic ties to learn of nuclear secrets? Threatening to embargo a country unless they overthrow a leader he doesn't like? This is a preventative measure to save our democracy. As Harvard Law School professor Noah Feldman said:
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Post by v9733xa on Dec 20, 2019 23:31:33 GMT -5
I have a question for everyone in here, feel free to answer if you would like: Why do you think Trump is a bad president? Also, fucking THIS: Really. What a trolling motherfucker. He's like that kid who eats 5 brownies when he's not supposed to, has chocolate residue on his face and fingernails afterwards when his mom confronts him, and says "what brownies?" Get fucked.
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